NBA DFS Picks 25 October: DK, FanDuel, Yahoo

NBA DFS picks for 25 October: where the value sits

This is my full write-up of the NBA DFS picks for Saturday’s slate. I am working from our projections across four sites: Fanteam, which carries the main slate, and DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, where I look at the value plays on each. The Fanteam slate has five games, and the rest of the card adds the Lakers at Jazz and the Pacers at Nets. Some of the biggest names are priced well above what their projections support, and a few of the cheapest players are doing more than their salaries suggest. I walk through all of it below.

Games and pace

The highest total on the board is Lakers at Jazz at 239.0, and I think that game matters more than its place on the Fanteam card suggests, since it is only on the DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo side. Sacramento and Memphis is close behind at 236.6, with Los Angeles’s implied total at 124.6 leading all teams. Here is the full list of game environments:

Lakers at Jazz: game total 239.0. Lakers implied 124.6, Jazz implied 114.4.
Pacers at Nets: game total 234.2. Pacers implied 119.5, Nets implied 114.7.
Kings vs. Grizzlies: game total 236.6. Kings implied 116.3, Grizzlies implied 120.3.
Pistons at 76ers: game total 229.5. Pistons implied 117.6, 76ers implied 111.9.
Thunder vs. Clippers: game total 225.6. Thunder implied 120.8, Clippers implied 104.8.
Timberwolves vs. Raptors: game total 231.3. Timberwolves implied 115.8, Raptors implied 115.5.
Knicks vs. Magic: game total 225.4. Knicks implied 118.4, Magic implied 107.0.

The Magic and Clippers games stand out to me as the lowest-scoring environments, and both have plenty of players out. I would be careful stacking anyone from those two teams unless the price is clearly right. The Timberwolves and Raptors game is nearly even on implied points, which makes it a useful spot for a balanced stack if the lineups hold.

Fanteam main slate

The Fanteam lineup is seven players: PG, SG, SF, PF, C and two UTIL, with an 84 cap and no more than seven players from one team. Value on Fanteam is a plain ratio, and anything above 1 beats the price, though most of the useful plays here are sitting around 3. I have split the card into top plays, value plays and fades.

Top plays

Domantas Sabonis is my top play on this slate. He projects for 49.3 at 15.8, which gives a value of 3.12, and his role in Sacramento keeps his workload steady even with Dylan Cardwell and Maxime Raynaud out according to the latest injury report. Cade Cunningham is right there at 49.1 for the same salary, and I like him almost as much because Detroit is short on bigs with Jalen Duren listed as out. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projects for 48.7 but costs 16.8, so I see him as a fine play with a lower ratio.

Karl-Anthony Towns has the best value of the big names at 3.22 for 13.8. He projects for 44.5, which makes him one of the cheapest ways to get a high-end projection on the card. Scottie Barnes at 13.0 for 41.3 is also strong.

Player	Pos	Team	Salary	Proj	Value
Domantas Sabonis	C	SAC	15.8	49.3	3.12
Cade Cunningham	PG	DET	15.8	49.1	3.11
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	PG	OKC	16.8	48.7	2.90
Karl-Anthony Towns	PF	NYK	13.8	44.5	3.22
Tyrese Maxey	PG	PHI	14.2	42.6	3.00
Jaylen Brown	SG	PHI	13.2	42.2	3.20
Jalen Brunson	PG	NYK	13.5	41.9	3.10
Scottie Barnes	SF	TOR	13.0	41.3	3.18

Philadelphia’s players need a caveat. The 76ers have not submitted their injury status yet, so Maxey, Brown and LeBron James are not confirmed until the report comes through. I still like the Philadelphia plays on paper, but I would not lock anyone from that game before the status is known.

Value plays

Paul Reed is the standout on Fanteam. He projects for 35.2 at 7.0, a value of 5.03, which is far above anyone else on the board. With Duren out according to the latest injury report, Detroit’s frontcourt opens up, and Reed is the clearest beneficiary. John Collins is the second Pistons option at 8.0 for 28.8, a weaker ratio but still a useful price if you want exposure to the same game.

Jalen Suggs at 9.7 for 34.5 is one I like a lot. Paolo Banchero is out according to the latest injury report, and Suggs gets a bigger role in Orlando’s offense. Kris Dunn and Isaiah Jackson both sit in a Clippers team that has lost Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram and others, so their roles look bigger too. Jerami Grant at 6.8 for 22.3 is a cheap piece in Memphis.

Player	Pos	Team	Salary	Proj	Value
Paul Reed	PF	DET	7.0	35.2	5.03
John Collins	PF	DET	8.0	28.8	3.60
Jalen Suggs	SG	ORL	9.7	34.5	3.56
Kris Dunn	PG	LAC	7.3	24.9	3.41
Isaiah Jackson	PF	LAC	7.6	25.5	3.36
LeBron James	SF	PHI	11.8	39.4	3.34
Jerami Grant	PF	MEM	6.8	22.3	3.28

Fades

I am not saying these players are bad. I am saying they are badly priced tonight. Anthony Edwards at 16.0 projects for 40.7, a value of 2.54, which is the weakest ratio among the expensive guards. Kawhi Leonard at 13.3 for 37.6 is a similar story. Immanuel Quickley at 10.7 for 29.3 and Cedric Coward at 11.0 for 29.1 have ratios that fall well short of what I want at those prices. Coward is also listed as questionable with a left wrist sprain according to the latest injury report, which is another reason I would stay away.

Player	Pos	Team	Salary	Proj	Value
Anthony Edwards	SG	MIN	16.0	40.7	2.54
Cedric Coward	SG	MEM	11.0	29.1	2.65
Immanuel Quickley	PG	TOR	10.7	29.3	2.74
Kawhi Leonard	SF	TOR	13.3	37.6	2.83

DraftKings

On DraftKings I am paying attention to the value on the big bodies. Paul Reed at $4,200 projects for 35.2, which is a value of 8.38 and the best number I see on any site. Luka Doncic is the top projection at $11,200 for 56.4, but his price takes a lot of room. Brooklyn’s Day’Ron Sharpe is on the value list too, but the Nets have not submitted their injury status yet, so I would wait on him. Jalen Suggs at $5,800 for 34.5 is the cleanest of the guard options.

Player	Pos	Team	Salary	Proj	Value
Paul Reed	C	DET	$4,200	35.2	8.38
Day’Ron Sharpe	C	BKN	$5,300	32.9	6.21
John Collins	PF	DET	$4,800	28.8	6.00
Jalen Suggs	PG	ORL	$5,800	34.5	5.95
Kris Dunn	PG	LAC	$4,400	24.9	5.66
LeBron James	PF	PHI	$7,100	39.4	5.55

FanDuel

FanDuel has a similar shape to DraftKings, with Paul Reed again at the top of the value list. At $5,900 he projects for 36.1, a value of 6.12. Ausar Thompson at $6,000 for 34.3 is a useful second option, but he is listed as questionable with a right ankle sprain according to the latest injury report, so I would want to see his status before I use him. Cameron Boozer at $7,000 for 39.3 gives you a big projection in Memphis if you want to spend up. Cedric Coward at $4,800 has the same questionable tag on his wrist, so the same caution applies.

Player	Pos	Team	Salary	Proj	Value
Paul Reed	C	DET	$5,900	36.1	6.12
Ausar Thompson	SF	DET	$6,000	34.3	5.72
Cedric Coward	SG	MEM	$4,800	27.3	5.69
Cameron Boozer	PF	MEM	$7,000	39.3	5.61
Day’Ron Sharpe	C	BKN	$5,700	31.9	5.60
Tristan da Silva	SF	ORL	$4,100	22.8	5.56

Yahoo

Yahoo is a plain ratio, so I read it differently from the other sites. Anything above 1 beats the price. Keaton Wagler at 10 for 23.1 is the best ratio in the table at 2.31, and he is a cheap way into the Clippers’ thin guard rotation. Paul Reed at 18 for 36.1 is a strong piece as well. Darius Acuff at 22 for 32.4 gives you a solid projection from Sacramento. Yahoo’s cap is 200 and each lineup can carry at most six players from one team, so keep that in mind when you build.

Player	Pos	Team	Salary	Proj	Value
Keaton Wagler	PG	LAC	10	23.1	2.31
Paul Reed	C	DET	18	36.1	2.01
Cameron Boozer	PF	MEM	24	39.3	1.64
Isaiah Jackson	C	LAC	17	25.3	1.49
Darius Acuff	PG	SAC	22	32.4	1.47
Keon Ellis	SG	BKN	14	20.5	1.46

Injury notes and lineup status

Several rotations have changed according to the latest injury report. Banchero, Duren, Beal, Ingram and Dylan Cardwell are all out, and that opens up minutes-based roles in words I would call workload for the players left behind. Donte DiVincenzo is out for Minnesota. Thunder guard Otega Oweh is out with the team’s notes listed as not with team. Memphis has Zach Edey out, and Keegan Murray is questionable for Sacramento. Anthony Black and Jose Alvarado are both questionable for Orlando and New York. The Brooklyn and Philadelphia statuses are not in yet, so treat any player from those two teams as unconfirmed.

Lineups are not final, and a player not listed on the latest injury report is not confirmed healthy. Check the official lineup before lock on every site.

FAQ

Which Fanteam play gives the most value on this slate?

Paul Reed is the standout at 7.0 for 35.2, a value of 5.03. He is the cheapest path to a high projection on the main slate, and Duren being out according to the latest injury report is the main reason I like him.

Should I avoid the Philadelphia plays until their status is in?

Yes, I would hold off. The 76ers have not submitted their injury status yet, so Maxey, Brown and LeBron James have no confirmed status. The projections are strong, but I want to see the report before I lock them in.

Why are Edwards and Leonard on the fade list if they are good players?

Because their prices are high relative to their projections. Edwards projects for 40.7 at 16.0 and Leonard for 37.6 at 13.3, and neither ratio is strong enough for me to pay that much. That is a pricing call, not a judgment on their talent.

Check the official lineups before lock on every site, and recheck the injury report close to tip-off because several statuses on this card are still questionable.

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For the always-updated slate numbers and full player projections for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and Fanteam, see our NBA DFS Projections page.