Our NFL DFS picks week 4 start in Cincinnati, where the Jaguars and Bengals carry the slate’s only total above 50. The Bengals stack tops our projections on all three sites, but the best edges this week sit a level below: cheap backs with real workloads, tight ends priced like mid-range receivers, and a Bills offense implied for more points than anyone. Projections update through Sunday, so check late injury news before lock.
Top games and implied totals
Jacksonville at Cincinnati (52.0) is the clear headline. Cincinnati is a 2.5-point favourite with a 27.2 implied total, and Jacksonville sits at 24.8. Both offenses have to keep pace, which supports stacking either side.
Buffalo owns the highest team total on the slate at 28.0 in a 49.0 game against New England. A 7-point spread raises the blowout question, but that tends to help Josh Allen’s floor rather than hurt it.
Baltimore (27.0) is an 11.5-point home favourite over Tennessee, and Kansas City (26.0) visits Las Vegas in a 47.5 total. Dallas at Houston and Denver at San Francisco both sit at 48.5, with the home sides implied for 25.8.
At the bottom, Miami at Minnesota (38.5) and Green Bay at Tampa Bay (39.0) are low totals, though Minnesota’s 24.0 implied total against Miami’s 14.5 makes the Vikings defense interesting.
Best stacks
Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
The Bengals trio leads our stack projections everywhere: 57.1 on DraftKings for $21,000, 50.5 on FanDuel for $24,200. Chase and Higgins absorb nearly all of this passing game’s targets, and Higgins’ touchdown-heavy profile suits a shootout. Bringing it back with Parker Washington is our preferred build. Washington is the focal point of Jacksonville’s passing game and shows up as a top FanDuel value at $7,100 with a 14.08 projection.
Flip it: Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence is the best quarterback value on DraftKings at $5,900, projecting 21.01, almost identical to Burrow’s 21.05 at $6,800. He will be popular. That is fine in cash. In tournaments, the Burrow side is likely to carry less ownership for a similar outcome.
Josh Allen, DJ Moore, Dalton Kincaid
Allen is our top quarterback on every site (24.75 on DraftKings at $7,700). The Bills stack projects 50.5 on DraftKings for only $18,700, the cheapest of our top four. Moore has carried a strong downfield role, and New England looks thin across the field.
Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, AJ Barner
This DraftKings stack posts the best value score of the group (49.3 for $17,600). Smith-Njigba is the highest-projected receiver on the slate, and Barner at $3,000 makes the build workable.
The contrarian lane: Dallas and Houston
Dak Prescott with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens projects 52.5 on DraftKings. We like Pickens specifically: he works almost entirely outside against a Texans secondary that has struggled there, and his production has lagged his target volume. Nico Collins as the bring-back is in play, but confirm his status before lock.
Core plays by position
Quarterback
Allen is the anchor. Burrow and Lawrence are the game-stack choices. Patrick Mahomes at $6,500 on DraftKings (20.55) is a quiet pivot in a game that could open up late.
Running back
Christian McCaffrey projects highest on DraftKings (21.5 at $7,700) and should be the most popular back on the slate. His receiving role is matchup-proof. Kenneth Walker III (20.61 on DraftKings) is our preferred way to get different at the top. He handles a workhorse share in Kansas City and draws a soft Raiders defense.
Chase Brown at $6,100 on DraftKings (17.65) is the value back attached to the best game. His touchdown production has lagged his role, and that should correct.
Wide receiver
Smith-Njigba (22.72 on DraftKings, $9,100) is worth the price. Chase (20.5, $8,100) is best used inside a stack rather than as a one-off. Garrett Wilson ($6,800, 18.09) is a strong value in our numbers, though we would note that his big game last week came late, so we treat him as a solid play rather than a lock.
Tight end
Brock Bowers (17.29 on DraftKings) and Trey McBride (17.01) project like WR1s. Both have earned double-digit targets regularly. George Kittle at $5,100 (13.68) has extra appeal with San Francisco’s receiver room in rough shape.
Value plays
- Jeremiyah Love, ARI (DK $5,800, 16.85): His usage jumped last week and he looks like the lead back against a weak Giants run defense. The one caution is that his snap share has been held in check, so his workload may not repeat in full.
- Aaron Jones Sr., MIN (DK $6,000, 17.06): Minnesota is a 9.5-point favourite, and Justin Jefferson is on our injury list. Jones has no real competition for touches. Injury risk is the trade-off with an older back.
- T.J. Hockenson, MIN (DK $3,300, 11.06): He is the best tight end value on DraftKings and a natural partner with Jordan Addison ($5,300, 14.27) if Jefferson is ruled out.
- Kyler Murray (DK $5,300, 18.14): Our projections like the price. His efficiency has been poor, though, so treat him as a tournament play.
- C.J. Stroud, HOU (DK $5,700, 19.15; FD $7,000, 18.91): He is a top quarterback value on both sites. His ceiling has been limited historically, so he works best in Houston-Dallas builds.
- Brenton Strange, JAX (DK $3,200, 9.65): A salary saver inside Jaguars stacks. Cincinnati has been generous to tight ends.
- Dontayvion Wicks, PHI (DK $4,300, 11.65): DeVonta Smith is on our injury list, which opens targets for Wicks. Philadelphia’s passing game is shaky, so we keep exposure light.
- Rams DST (DK $2,600, 7.62): This is the best defensive value on DraftKings. The Vikings ($4,000, 10.29) are the top raw projection.
Fanteam picks
Fanteam pricing rewards paying up at quarterback this week. Josh Allen costs 21.5 credits and projects 23.46, the only quarterback above 1.0 value besides Brock Purdy (18.7 credits, 18.99) and Mahomes (20.0, 19.95). We would start most builds with Allen.
At running back, Kenneth Walker at 14.2 credits (19.74, 1.39 value) is far better priced than McCaffrey or Derrick Henry at 16.5. Aaron Jones Sr. at 10.8 credits projects 16.17 for a 1.5 value, the best of any back. Emanuel Wilson at 7.4 credits (10.43) is a usable punt if you need the money elsewhere.
The Fanteam receiver values are Garrett Wilson (11.2 credits, 17.71, 1.58) and Ja’Marr Chase (12.4, 19.3, 1.56). Smith-Njigba at 14.5 projects 21.7 and is worth fitting in when you skimp at running back. Makai Lemon at 6.3 credits (9.7) is the cheapest receiver who earns his spot.
Tight end is where Fanteam lineups are won. Bowers (10.2 credits, 1.6 value) and McBride (10.8, 1.56) are both strong enough to justify playing both, using one in a flex role. Kittle at 9.0 credits (12.94) is the cheaper route.
The Burrow, Chase and Higgins stack projects 53.8 for 42.6 credits, which is our top Fanteam stack. The Vikings defense (9.6 credits, 9.74) projects highest. Fanteam’s injury list includes Justin Jefferson, Breece Hall, DeVonta Smith, Baker Mayfield, Caleb Williams and Jaxson Dart, so confirm every lineup before lock.
Fades and pivots
Lamar Jackson: Our numbers rank him second among Fanteam quarterbacks (20.51), but we are lukewarm. An 11.5-point spread points to Baltimore controlling the game on the ground, which caps his passing volume. Allen at a similar price is the better use of salary.
Derrick Henry: The revenge angle against Tennessee will draw attention, and his projection (20.45 on DraftKings) is strong. At $8,400 he is the most expensive back on the slate. A banged-up offensive line facing a tough Titans front leaves him dependent on yardage and touchdowns. If you want Ravens exposure, Zay Flowers is the leverage play off Henry, but only if Tennessee keeps the game competitive.
Puka Nacua: This is where we break from the market. Our projections still have him as a top-three receiver (18.89 on DraftKings at $7,500). His health and snap count are the real questions, and Philadelphia has been a tough matchup for him. If he is cleared without restrictions, low ownership makes him a tournament play. If not, move to Garrett Wilson.
McCaffrey chalk: We are not fading him. In tournaments, pairing Walker with Smith-Njigba builds a high ceiling that will be far less common in the field.
Full, sortable projections for every player — with a CSV download for your own optimizer — are on our NFL DFS projections page.