The international break is over and our Premier League DFS picks week 6 have to deal with its usual leftovers: tired legs, vague injury news and a long list of fitness flags. Nine matches make up the slate, with the first kickoff at 14:00 UTC on Saturday 10 October, about 24 hours from now. Our projections favour a small group of premium attackers and a handful of very cheap starters, and that shape makes the 108.0 budget fairly easy to manage.
Our best lineup projects 53.7 points. It is built around Erling Haaland as captain, Bruno Fernandes as vice-captain, both Manchester United attackers and several value pieces. The rest of this piece explains why, and where we disagree with the general mood heading into the round.
What changed since the early look
The biggest move is Alexander Isak. His status still reads expected, but his projection has fallen from 3.44 to zero, so we would leave him out until his situation is clearer. Christian Walton has dropped from expected to unexpected in Ipswich’s goal, and Dominic Solanke has slipped to a possible starter with a lower number. On the other side, several Everton depth players have climbed, led by Tyler Dibling, who is now expected to start.
What changed since the early look
| Player | Team | Early | Now | Change | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Isak | LIV | 3.44 | 0.00 | -3.44 | expected |
| Tyler Dibling | EVE | 0.52 | 2.08 | +1.56 | unexpected → expected |
| Merlin Röhl | EVE | 0.93 | 2.30 | +1.37 | injured |
| Carlos Alcaraz | EVE | 0.93 | 2.30 | +1.37 | unexpected |
| Christian Walton | IPS | 3.30 | 2.03 | -1.27 | expected → unexpected |
| Hayden Hackney | EVE | 1.28 | 2.48 | +1.20 | unexpected |
| Dominic Solanke | TOT | 3.53 | 2.72 | -0.81 | expected → possible |
| Takehiro Tomiyasu | CRY | 2.37 | 1.63 | -0.74 | expected |
Captains for our Premier League DFS picks week 6
Erling Haaland (11.2) is our captain. He has the top projection on the slate at 5.63 and a 46.3% chance to score, which is far ahead of anyone else, and he takes City’s penalties. Anfield is a hard away trip and our match model calls it close to even, but Haaland does not need an easy fixture to score. He is also cheaper than both United midfielders.
Bruno Fernandes (13.2, 5.47) is the natural vice-captain and a perfectly sound captain in his own right. He takes United’s penalties, corners and free kicks, and United are our second-likeliest winners at home to Spurs. His recent returns have been quieter than his underlying play suggests. We read that as bad luck rather than decline.
Bryan Mbeumo (12.9, 5.31) is the third safe option. His 26.1% scoring chance is higher than Bruno’s, and he looks set to stay at the centre of United’s attack.
For a big-swing pick in larger contests, look at Igor Thiago (9.6), Charalampos Kostoulas (10.0) or Gonzalo Garcia (9.3). Each projects under 4 points, but each has a best-case game near 9.5 to 9.8. Garcia is an interesting case. He leads Fulham’s line against promoted Ipswich and may be on penalties, yet we rank him only 34th overall. As a captain he makes sense only as a deliberate gamble.
Captain options, week 6
| Type | Player | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe | Erling Haaland | MCI | LIV | 11.2 | 5.63 | 11.2 |
| Safe | Bruno Fernandes | MUN | TOT | 13.2 | 5.47 | 11.9 |
| Safe | Bryan Mbeumo | MUN | TOT | 12.9 | 5.31 | 11.9 |
| Upside | Igor Thiago | BRE | AVL | 9.6 | 3.90 | 9.8 |
| Upside | Charalampos Kostoulas | BHA | SUN | 10.0 | 3.93 | 9.8 |
| Upside | Gonzalo Garcia | FUL | IPS | 9.3 | 3.86 | 9.5 |
Stacks to build around
The Bruno and Mbeumo pair is our core. It costs 26.1, projects 10.8 and appears in 6 of our 15 lineups. United’s projected 2.06 goals against Spurs is the second-best figure on the slate.
The Haaland and Semenyo pairing is the efficient alternative. It projects 10.4 for just 21.9, although it shows up in only 2 of 15 lineups. The worry is that Semenyo carries an ankle flag at 75%. There is also a fair argument that his recent output has run ahead of his chances. We still rank him sixth, because the minutes look secure when he is fit.
Palmer and Rogers (25.4, 9.8) gives you Chelsea’s slate-best 2.08 projected goals at home to Bournemouth. We prefer Rogers, who plays higher up the pitch and gets on the end of more chances. Palmer still takes penalties, but his role has become deeper and he carries a muscular flag at 75%. Barnes and Wissa (23.0, 9.2) is a steady Newcastle option against Coventry. The Everton pair of Dewsbury-Hall and Barry (19.5, 8.6) is the budget build for a team with the slate’s best clean-sheet chance at 32.77%.
On defence, Everton’s 32.77% clean-sheet chance makes Pickford the top goalkeeper. If you add Tarkowski as well, remember the stacking penalty that applies when both keep a clean sheet.
Best stacks, week 6
| Stack | Team | Salary | Proj | In our lineups |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes + Bryan Mbeumo | MUN | 26.1 | 10.8 | 6 of 15 |
| Cole Palmer + Morgan Rogers | CHE | 25.4 | 9.8 | 4 of 15 |
| Harvey Barnes + Yoane Wissa | NEW | 23.0 | 9.2 | 4 of 15 |
| Erling Haaland + Antoine Semenyo | MCI | 21.9 | 10.4 | 2 of 15 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall + Thierno Barry | EVE | 19.5 | 8.6 | 1 of 15 |
Value plays
The cheapest useful players this week come from one place: Spurs’ midfield. Rodrigo Bentancur (4.9), Archie Gray (4.7), Sandro Tonali (6.2) and Savinho (6.8) all appear among our best points-per-salary options. Savinho stands out at 3.78 projected. These players do not depend on Spurs keeping a clean sheet, so a tough trip to Old Trafford matters less for them than for Spurs’ defenders.
Other value picks:
- Boubacar Kamara (6.6, 3.52), Ryan Christie (5.1) and Regan Slater (6.2) are cheap, expected starters.
- Gianluigi Donnarumma (6.7, 3.36) is the value goalkeeper. His best-case game of 8.0 is the highest among goalkeepers, because a busy afternoon at Anfield brings plenty of saves.
- Marc Guéhi (6.3, 3.10) is the cheap defender in our best lineup.
- Omar Marmoush (7.5, 3.97) is the cheap second forward, with a 23% scoring chance.
- Anan Khalaili (8.4, 4.33) gives strong mid-price output for Palace.
Underdogs and set pieces
Ipswich win only 33.44% of the time in our model, but Julio Enciso (9.2) and Jack Clarke (9.1) both have best-case games above 9. Mohammed Kudus (7.2) is the Spurs attacker we like best on the other side of the United stack. Enzo Le Fée (8.0) leads Sunderland’s attack at Brighton and may have a penalty route.
Marcus Tavernier (7.9) has a 16% chance to score against a Chelsea side we project to concede 1.28 goals. He could take penalties, depending on who is available.
Morgan Gibbs-White (9.4, 4.59) takes Forest’s penalties and free kicks, and nearly all of their attacking play goes through him. Forest have looked better away from home and they visit Palace, so we have him in our best lineup. Other set-piece takers to note are Szoboszlai, who has penalties, corners and free kicks for Liverpool, and Buendía at Villa.
Pascal Gross also takes all three types of set piece and has kept producing. We are cooler on him than most, ranking him 20th, partly because his output has run ahead of the chances he creates.
Fades and pivots
- João Pedro is the clearest fade. He costs 13.0, is only a possible starter at a 30% chance and has a knee flag. Rogers is the cleaner way to own Chelsea’s attack.
- Solanke has dropped to possible and has been finishing poorly. We agree with leaving him out.
- We are much lower than the general enthusiasm on several defenders: Lewis Hall ranks 112th for us and Luka Vuskovic 118th, with Antonio Silva and Antonín Kinský lower still. Maxim De Cuyper (9.4, 3.66) is our top defender. There are concerns that Mitoma’s return could push him back, but Mitoma projects just 0.76 for us this week.
- Chelsea’s defence has looked shaky, and that is a fair worry. Even so, Reece James is in our best lineup at 3.58. He is listed as unexpected with only a 50% chance to start, so he is a calculated risk. If he does not start, the safety net passes his slot to the closest-priced cheaper starter at his position, and that cushions the downside.
- Brentford’s Kevin Schade (27th) and Fulham’s Josh King (22nd) look attractive, but our projections rate them as solid rather than essential.
Final checks before lock
The flags that matter most are Palmer, Semenyo, Marcus Rashford and João Pedro, all at 75%. Reece James is also uncertain at 50%. Cody Gakpo’s minutes against City are worth confirming too, since we rank him 16th.
Avoid John Victor in Forest’s goal. His projection looks fine, but his chance of starting is just 12%, and a player who only comes off the bench scores nothing for you.
Our projections update until lock. Check late team news before the deadline on Saturday.
Full, sortable projections for every player, with a CSV download for your own optimizer, are on our Premier League DFS projections page.