Our NFL DFS picks week 8 start with two games: Arizona at Dallas and Baltimore at Buffalo, both posted at 54.5. Nothing else on the main slate is close, so ownership will pile into those games. Our job is to decide which parts of those games to play and where the rest of the slate offers better prices. Projections update through Sunday, so check late injury news before lock.
NFL DFS picks week 8: top games and implied totals
Dallas carries the slate’s top implied total at 30.8 as a 7-point home favourite, with Arizona at 23.8. Buffalo sits at 28.8 and Baltimore at 25.8 in the tighter of the two shootouts, with the Bills favoured by 3.
The next tier is defined by spreads rather than totals. Cincinnati is implied for 29.8 as a 13-point favourite over Tennessee (16.8), and Jacksonville is at 28.2 laying 10 to Indianapolis. Those blowout shapes matter: big leads can shift volume toward the run game, but they also cap how much the losing side contributes. The Rams (26.0) and New England (24.2 at Miami) round out the teams worth targeting. Cleveland at Pittsburgh, at 39.0, is the game to avoid outside of defences.
Best stacks
Cincinnati: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
On DraftKings this is our top three-man stack at 60.8 points for $21,400, and it leads on FanDuel too at 53.8 for $24,100. The Bengals pass even when ahead, which is what makes a 13-point favourite stackable. Chase at $7,700 on DraftKings (20.74) is priced below the other elite receivers.
Dallas: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens
Virtually tied with Cincinnati: 60.7 for $21,000 on DraftKings and 53.7 for $24,700 on FanDuel. Here is our hesitation. Dallas could lean on the run against a poor Arizona defence, which would make Dak a solid score rather than a slate-winner. We still like Lamb as a standalone piece, because a low-volume Dallas passing game should still run through him. Pickens has a shoulder issue to monitor.
Arizona: Jacoby Brissett, Trey McBride, Michael Wilson
The cheaper side of the best game, at 53.6 for $19,300 on DraftKings. Arizona should be throwing from behind, and McBride is the engine. Confirm the Cardinals receiver room before lock, as Wilson’s role depends on who is active. Running it back with Javonte Williams works well.
Baltimore and Buffalo
Josh Allen with DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid projects for only 49.9 on DraftKings, because Buffalo’s pass catchers are hard to pin down. We would rather play Allen with a Baltimore bring-back. Lamar Jackson with Zay Flowers is the side of this game we like most for tournaments, provided Lamar is healthy.
Core plays by position
Quarterback
Josh Allen is our top projection on every site: 26.2 at $7,700 on DraftKings and 25.92 at $9,400 on FanDuel. Dak Prescott is the value leader at $6,300 on DraftKings (23.31) and $8,000 on FanDuel (22.85). Trevor Lawrence at $6,200 (21.71) is a strong cheaper option, though Jacksonville’s pass catchers are hard to choose between. Lamar Jackson at $6,800 (21.06) is the tournament pivot. He should draw less ownership than Allen or Dak.
Running back
Jahmyr Gibbs tops our running back board at 24.5 on DraftKings ($9,500) and 22.05 on FanDuel ($9,300). Minnesota is a tough matchup, and the field is drifting toward cheap backs, which makes him a strong leverage play rather than a fade. FanDuel’s pricing suits him better. Bijan Robinson projects for 23.32 at $8,500 on DraftKings. Tampa Bay is a hard run matchup and his receiving role has thinned, so we treat him as a projection-backed contrarian play. Javonte Williams ($7,300, 19.4) is the back we want in a run-heavy Dallas script.
Wide receiver
Puka Nacua is our top receiver: 23.71 at $8,600 on DraftKings. With Davante Adams on the injured list, the Rams target tree runs through him. CeeDee Lamb (21.8, $8,100) and Ja’Marr Chase (20.74, $7,700) follow. Zay Flowers at $7,200 (19.74) offers the best value of the group against a Buffalo secondary that struggles with receivers. Expect him to be popular.
Tight end and defence
Trey McBride is the clear top tight end at 20.02 for $7,400 on DraftKings, ahead of Brock Bowers (17.7 at $7,600). On defence, the Steelers lead at 8.38 for $3,300 on DraftKings against Cleveland’s 17.8 implied total.
Value plays
- Rhamondre Stevenson, DraftKings $5,600, 16.78. TreVeyon Henderson is on the injured list, which consolidates a backfield that faces a 17.2-point Miami team. The backfield may still split, so do not treat him as a workhorse.
- Jonah Coleman, DraftKings $4,300, 13.03. With RJ Harvey injured, Coleman is the cheapest route into real touches, though Kansas City is not an easy draw.
- Hunter Henry, DraftKings $4,300, 12.26. A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs are both on the injured list, and Henry is the most reliable target left for Drake Maye.
- Wan’Dale Robinson, DraftKings $4,200, 12.02. A volume receiver on a team that should be trailing all day.
- Cade Otton, DraftKings $3,400, 9.03, and the Broncos defence at $2,300 (6.26) for salary relief.
A note on Bhayshul Tuten. He is likely to be popular as the cheap back for Jacksonville in a 10-point favourite spot against a Colts team selling off pieces. He does not crack our value lists on any site. We prefer Stevenson and Coleman at similar prices.
Fanteam picks
With a 110-credit budget, Fanteam rewards cheap backs more than any other site, and our numbers make that plain. Rhamondre Stevenson at 11.4 credits (16.12) is the best value on the board at any position. Tony Pollard (11.5, 14.35) and Braelon Allen (11.2, 13.64) follow. Allen becomes much more attractive if Breece Hall is ruled out, so watch that status.
Those savings fund the top end. Josh Allen at 21.0 credits (24.58) is worth the outlay, and Joe Burrow at 18.9 (21.46) is the more efficient stacking option. Lamar Jackson at 18.0 (19.92) is the cheapest of the three. At receiver, Puka Nacua (19.0, 22.14) and Zay Flowers (16.5, 18.56) stand out, with Amon-Ra St. Brown at 16.0 (17.52) a quieter option.
At tight end, pay for Trey McBride (17.5, 19.11) or drop to Hunter Henry (10.6, 11.75). Mason Taylor at 6.5 (7.45) is a deep punt. The Steelers (8.8, 8.24) lead defences, and the Broncos at 6.8 save the most credits. Our top Fanteam stacks are Dallas (57.5 for 52.6 credits) and Cincinnati (57.3 for 51.7). Fanteam lists A.J. Brown, Davante Adams, Emeka Egbuka and Tyjae Spears among its notable injuries, so clear those names from your pool.
Yahoo picks
Yahoo uses half PPR with no yardage bonuses, which takes some value away from volume receivers. Josh Allen ($39, 25.33) and Dak Prescott ($34, 22.14) share the best value among top quarterbacks, so Dak saves $5. For cheaper options, Kyler Murray ($25, 17.45) and Geno Smith ($24, 16.59) lead our value list. Murray’s season has been inconsistent, while Geno has a soft Raiders matchup. Chase Brown at $25 (15.78) is an excellent price for his role. At tight end, T.J. Hockenson ($15, 8.63) and Cade Otton ($10, 7.01) are cheap. The Jaguars defence ($15, 8.06) is our pick. The Dallas stack costs $97 against $112 for Cincinnati, with the same 51.8 projection.
Fades and pivots
Kenneth Walker III at $8,800 on DraftKings (20.96) is the expensive back we are least interested in. Denver will be focused on stopping him, and the price assumes a better game environment than a 41.5 total offers. Gibbs and Bijan project higher at a similar cost.
Chase Brown is our main ownership concern. He is a strong DraftKings value at $6,300 (18.06), but he has been inefficient and loses goal-line work, and he will be among the most popular backs. Play him in cash and limit him in tournaments.
Our tournament pivot is the Jets. Garrett Wilson and Geno Smith barely register in our projections, yet the Raiders secondary is very vulnerable and few people will build around a 46.5 total. Pairing them with Brock Bowers covers both sides of the game.
Projections will move as injury reports settle, especially for Lamar Jackson, Breece Hall and the Arizona receivers. Recheck everything before lock on Sunday.
Full, sortable projections for every player — with a CSV download for your own optimizer — are on our NFL DFS projections page.