Our NFL DFS picks for week 3 start with a slate that has one clear shootout, three strong home favourites and a handful of games worth ignoring. Ravens-Cowboys carries a 53.5 total. Buffalo, San Francisco and Detroit all sit above 27 implied points. Our projections point you toward those spots, and in a few places they disagree with where the crowd is likely to go.
Top games and implied totals
BAL@DAL (53.5) is the game of the week by a distance. Baltimore is implied for 28.5 and Dallas for 25.0, so both sides are live for stacks and bring-backs. One wildcard: the game is being played in Brazil, and the condition of the playing surface is worth watching before lock.
LAC@BUF (50.5) gives Buffalo the highest team total on the slate at 28.8. The Chargers sit at 21.8, and their offense has been disjointed enough that we lean Bills-heavy rather than full game stacks.
NYJ@DET (48.5) and ARI@SF (48.0) round out the top tier, with Detroit at 27.5 and San Francisco at 27.8. Kansas City (27.8) is implied for a big day against Miami (17.8), though a 10-point spread brings blowout risk for the passing game.
At the bottom, TEN@NYG (37.5) and Washington’s 15.8 team total are spots to attack with defenses, not skill players.
Best stacks
Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens
Our top raw stack on every site. On DraftKings it projects 54.5 points for $21,100. Dallas throws by choice, Lamb is the focal point, and Pickens is the piece we want more of. His early numbers have lagged his usage, which keeps his price and attention down, and a game with this total is where that gap tends to close. Baltimore pieces make natural bring-backs.
Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams
Projects 52.6 on DraftKings at $19,600, the best value of the big stacks there. St. Brown’s red zone role is elite and he does not need Goff to have a huge day to pay off. Williams is where we get cautious. His production has been erratic and his drops have cost him, so we are comfortable swapping him for Sam LaPorta ($4,300, 12.15 on DraftKings) or pairing Goff with Gibbs instead.
Josh Allen, Dalton Kincaid, DJ Moore
Projects 50.2 on DraftKings for $19,300 and 45.5 on FanDuel for $21,500. Allen is throwing downfield more aggressively this season and Kincaid’s route participation has climbed. Moore is dealing with a shoulder issue, so monitor his status. If he sits, Kincaid’s value rises further. James Cook is a sensible add for touchdown equity.
Tyler Shough, Chris Olave, Devaughn Vele
The cheapest of our top stacks at $17,000 on DraftKings for 48.4 points, and the best value build there. The Saints play fast, keep throwing late, and funnel volume to Olave, whose projection looks light against his price.
FanDuel special: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman
On FanDuel this is our best-value stack at 43.1 points for $19,500. Bateman’s case leans on Zay Flowers’ hamstring. If Flowers is ruled out, Bateman becomes the clear beneficiary. If Flowers plays, drop Bateman and keep the Lamar-Andrews core.
Core plays by position
Quarterback
Josh Allen tops our board on DraftKings ($8,000, 25.2) and FanDuel ($9,100, 24.91). Lamar Jackson ($7,500, 23.73 on DraftKings) sits just behind in the best game. Patrick Mahomes at $6,200 posts the best value of the top five DraftKings quarterbacks at 20.96. The concern is that Kansas City may not need to throw much against Miami. We think that is exactly why he is interesting: Walker will be popular, and Mahomes with his pass catchers is a clean way around that chalk.
Running back
Jahmyr Gibbs is the top projection on the slate at 25.66 on DraftKings ($8,800). Huge workload, heavy red zone usage, and the Jets have been one of the softest matchups for backs. Kenneth Walker III ($7,400, 21.38) is leading the league in carries with real target volume and should be extremely popular. Late-game touches could be trimmed in a blowout, but the floor is secure. Christian McCaffrey ($8,300, 21.66) keeps a strong receiving and short-yardage role against a weak Arizona defense.
Wide receiver
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,600, 21.42 on DraftKings) is the top receiver projection and the only Seahawks piece worth playing against a leaky Washington secondary. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900, 19.89) and CeeDee Lamb ($7,800, 19.17) follow. Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100, 18.74) is the tournament angle: Pittsburgh’s coverage looks have suited him historically and ownership should lag his talent.
Tight end
Trey McBride ($6,700, 17.16 on DraftKings) functions as Arizona’s WR1 and is the only tight end projecting above 13 points. Pay for him when you can.
Value plays
- Dalton Schultz, TE, HOU: $4,200 on DraftKings for 12.86, the best value at the position. Nico Collins is on the injured list and Schultz has become Houston’s top target earner against a Colts defense that struggles over the middle.
- Jaylen Warren, RB, PIT: $5,700 on DraftKings for 16.56 and $6,300 on FanDuel for 14.44. With Rico Dowdle out, his workload should consolidate, and Cincinnati tends to push underneath targets to backs.
- Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ: $6,300 on DraftKings for 16.52. If Detroit builds a lead, the Jets have to throw and he is the obvious outlet.
- Parker Washington, WR, JAX: $6,000 for 15.28 on DraftKings. His target share has been excellent and his price has not caught up.
- Jalen Coker, WR, CAR: $5,500 on DraftKings (13.99) and $6,200 on FanDuel (11.31). Carolina is throwing aggressively and makes a sneaky Bryce Young stack.
- Titans DST: $2,400 on DraftKings (7.36) and $3,100 on FanDuel (7.36). Top value at the position against a Giants offense we do not trust.
Fanteam picks
Fanteam pricing opens up a few builds the other sites do not, particularly at running back and tight end.
Josh Allen (20.2 credits, 23.48) is our top quarterback and top QB value. Tyler Shough (16.2, 18.37) is the discount route, and the Saints stack of Shough, Olave and Vele costs 35.1 credits for 46.2 points, the best stack value on the site. The Dallas stack projects highest at 51.3 for 40.0 credits.
At running back, Jahmyr Gibbs (16.5, 24.06) is the anchor. Kenneth Walker at 14.4 credits (20.43) is priced well below his workload. The standout value is Ashton Jeanty at 11.0 credits for 16.69, a bell-cow role in a friendly matchup with New Orleans that should draw less attention than Gibbs or Walker. Jaylen Warren (11.1, 16.12) is right behind.
Receiver value is concentrated in the low teens. Chris Olave (11.2, 17.3) leads the position in value, with Ja’Marr Chase (12.0, 17.69) and CeeDee Lamb (12.8, 17.97) both priced well under their projections. Garrett Wilson (10.3, 15.7) fills out the value tier.
Trey McBride (10.6, 16.74) is the best value on the entire Fanteam board by our numbers. If you cannot fit him, Dalton Kincaid (9.2, 12.97) and Dalton Schultz (8.9, 12.35) are sound. At defense, the Titans (7.0, 7.05) save credits, while the Chiefs (9.2, 8.65) project highest.
Fades and pivots
Jameis Winston shows up as a DraftKings value at $4,000 for 13.78, and we are still passing. The Giants are implied for just 20.0, his recent play has been poor, and there is a chance of stormy conditions for this game. We would rather roster the Titans defense against him.
Kyler Murray ($5,100, 17.63) is another cheap quarterback our numbers like more than we do in practice. He is returning into a blitz-heavy Tampa Bay defense in a slow-paced game. Fine in a Jefferson stack, but not a cash lock.
On FanDuel, Derrick Henry at $9,000 (18.7) is the weakest value among the top backs. Kenneth Walker III at $8,300 projects more (19.35) for less.
Our projections update through Sunday, so check back before lock. Keep an eye on DJ Moore, Zay Flowers and the Brazil field report in particular, and check late injury news before you finalise lineups.
Full, sortable projections for every player — with a CSV download for your own optimizer — are on our NFL DFS projections page.