This NFL DFS early look week 9 starts with a simple picture: the slate has a few clear scoring environments and a lot of uncertainty underneath them. Our projections already point toward San Francisco, Dallas and Detroit, with Seattle and Kansas City close behind. Several injury and trade situations could still move things before lock.
Our NFL DFS early look week 9: games to target
Las Vegas at San Francisco carries the highest total on the board at 52.5, with the 49ers favored by 10 and implied for 31.2 points. The Raiders sit at 21.2, which is enough to keep their passing game relevant in a game that should stay lively.
Dallas at Indianapolis is next at 51.5. Dallas is a 5.5-point favorite and implied for 28.5, while the Colts are implied for 23.0. Both teams can score, which makes this the best game on the slate for building a stack with a bring-back.
Detroit at Miami totals 50.5, with the Lions implied for 28.8 and the Dolphins for 21.8. Then come Rams at Washington (47.5, Rams 26.5) and Jets at Chiefs (47.5, Kansas City 28.8).
Seattle is worth a mention even though its game total is only 41.5. The Seahawks are 12.5-point favorites and implied for 27.0 against an Arizona team projected for 14.5.
Early stacks to build around
Three quarterback stacks lead our projections on every site that lists them.
- Dallas: Dak Prescott with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens projects for 56.4 points on DraftKings at $21,100 and 49.6 on FanDuel.
- San Francisco: Brock Purdy with Mike Evans and George Kittle projects for 55.4 on DraftKings at $19,300, the best value of the top stacks there (2.87 points per $1,000). On FanDuel it leads at 49.7.
- Detroit: Jared Goff with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams projects for 51.0 on DraftKings and 44.9 on FanDuel. It costs more than the other two for the same output.
Seattle (Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and AJ Barner) rounds out the group at 50.4 on DraftKings. Green Bay’s Jordan Love stack appears fifth on DraftKings and FanDuel, since the Packers-Patriots total of 46.5 supports it.
We are higher on Dallas than the usual caution suggests. There is a fair worry that the Cowboys lean on the run, and that would trim Prescott’s passing volume. But a 28.5-point implied total against Indianapolis is hard to reach without throwing, and our numbers rate him among the best quarterback values on several sites. Pairing the Dallas stack with Colts pieces such as Tyler Warren is a natural way to cover the shootout case.
Early value by position
Quarterback. Purdy projects for 23.06 on DraftKings at $6,800 and 22.68 on FanDuel at $8,500, the top mark on both. Prescott is $6,500 on DraftKings for 20.92. Cheaper, Shedeur Sanders is $4,000 on DraftKings for 14.57, and Malik Willis is $5,100 for 17.58 on DraftKings and $6,500 for 17.44 on FanDuel. Willis is interesting as a way to pay up elsewhere while still having a path to a bring-back in the Detroit game.
Running back. Jahmyr Gibbs leads at 27.67 on DraftKings ($10,000) and 25.11 on FanDuel ($10,200). He is expensive, but the Detroit offense and the matchup justify it. Christian McCaffrey at $8,000 on DraftKings projects for 23.65, and Kenneth Walker III at $9,000 projects for 24.37 in the Kansas City spot. McCaffrey’s health after the bye is a monitor item, not a fact we can assume. Jonah Coleman at $5,300 on DraftKings projects for 17.11, the best running back value there at 3.23.
Wide receiver. Smith-Njigba tops the position at 25.34 on DraftKings and 21.18 on FanDuel. Puka Nacua is right behind at 23.77 and 19.10. Evans at $6,500 on DraftKings projects for 17.19, a useful cheaper way into the San Francisco stack if he is fully healthy.
Tight end. Brock Bowers leads at 18.94 on DraftKings, and he is the natural bring-back for a Niners stack. Cheaper, Tyler Warren is $4,600 for 13.20 and Greg Dulcich is $3,100 for 9.33. Dalton Schultz at $3,200 projects for 9.47.
Defense. The Saints are the standout at $2,900 on DraftKings (8.21) and $3,600 on FanDuel. Seattle is the highest-projected unit at 9.20.
Fanteam early look
Fanteam uses a 110-credit budget, and our early read is that the premium tier is worth paying for. Gibbs is 22.3 credits for 26.11 projected points, and McCaffrey is 19.3 for 22.86, which gives him the best value among top backs at 1.18. Smith-Njigba (21.5 credits, 23.93) and Nacua (20.0, 22.63) lead the receivers. Bowers at 15.8 credits for 18.28 is the best-valued top tight end at 1.16.
At quarterback, Purdy costs 19.5 credits for 21.62. Prescott is the better value at 17.2 for 19.43 (1.13). Drake Maye (18.4 for 19.92) and Patrick Mahomes (18.5 for 19.83) are close behind, and Jayden Daniels at 15.9 for 17.80 is a decent alternative.
The cheap end is where the lineup can be built. Elijah Mitchell is 4.9 credits for 7.73 points, a value of 1.58, the best on our board. Alvin Kamara (8.0 for 10.59) and Jadarian Price (7.9 for 10.19) also project well for their price, and Mack Hollins at 5.5 for 6.67 is a cheap Patriots piece. Malik Nabers (14.0 for 15.87) is a reasonable mid-priced receiver.
Stack value is close to even between Dallas (53.2 points for 47.9 credits) and San Francisco (52.8 for 49.2). Detroit comes in at 49.6 for 45.8, and Seattle at 48.5 for 48.5 is the weakest of the top group on value. For defense, Seattle at 9.1 credits projects for 8.96, and New Orleans at 8.1 projects for 7.92. Fanteam’s injured list currently includes Deebo Samuel Sr., Jalen Hurts, Davante Adams and RJ Harvey, so check status before locking anyone from those backfields and offenses.
Yahoo early look
Yahoo is half PPR with no yardage bonuses and a $200 cap. Prescott leads quarterbacks at $35 for 19.97, with Mahomes at $34 for 19.43. The value pick is Daniel Jones at $20 for 14.96, a 0.75 value, the best among quarterbacks. He faces a Dallas defense our environment says can be attacked, though we are not sure he stays the starter. Austin Ekeler at $10 projects for 6.73, and Jonah Coleman at $23 projects for 14.91. Tyler Warren at $17 for 10.16 is the top-valued tight end. The Dallas stack projects for 47.9 at $97, and the Kansas City stack with Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce projects for 39.6 at $79.
What to watch before Sunday
A few situations could change this board.
- Jonathan Taylor: trade rumors around the deadline could change the Indianapolis backfield. He is a strong play if he stays, so we are waiting on news.
- McCaffrey and Evans: both are coming off the bye, and a clean report matters for the San Francisco stack.
- Dallas tight ends: if Jake Ferguson sits, Brevyn Spann-Ford becomes a cheap option, but our projection for him is under three points, so we would not chase it.
- Quarterback changes: Indianapolis and Arizona both have quarterback questions that affect their pass catchers.
- Houston: the status of the Texans’ passing game is worth checking before stacking them.
Our projections update through Sunday, so check late injury news before lock.
Full, sortable projections for every player — with a CSV download for your own optimizer — are on our NFL DFS projections page.