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These are my NBA DFS picks for 21 October, an 11-game slate with plenty of injuries to work through. Fanteam is the main focus, with top plays, value plays and fades, followed by the best values on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. The theme is simple: several rosters are thin, and the players who inherit those roles are priced to be used.
Games and pace
Minnesota and Miami carry the biggest total on the board at 247.6, with Minnesota implied for 124.1 and Miami for 123.4. I would not assume it plays all the way to that number, since both offenses can stall, but it is still the game with the most points on offer. Memphis and Utah sits at 244.5, and both teams are implied for more than 121. That is the game I most want exposure to, because both defenses have soft spots.
New Orleans against Indiana (243.3), Toronto against Chicago (240.7) and Atlanta against Orlando (240.5) round out the high end. Toronto is implied for 124.1, one of the best team totals on the slate.
The two low games are Brooklyn against Charlotte (220.1) and Sacramento against the Clippers (221.0). Low totals usually mean fewer fantasy points, but both games involve depleted rosters, so the production that is there gets concentrated in a few players. Washington is implied for 121.1 against Milwaukee’s 115.9, and the Lakers are implied for 122.9 against Golden State’s 112.8.
Fanteam NBA DFS picks: top plays
Fanteam lineups are 7 players (PG, SG, SF, PF, C and two UTIL) with an 85 cap and at most 7 players from one team. The main slate includes all 11 games: BKN-CHA, HOU-DAL, LAC-SAC, LAL-GSW, MEM-UTA, MIA-MIN, NOP-IND, ORL-ATL, POR-PHX, TOR-CHI and WAS-MIL. On Fanteam, a value around 3 is roughly fair, so I am looking for players clearly above that.
| Player |
Pos |
Team |
Salary |
Proj |
Value |
| Luka Doncic |
PG |
LAL |
18.5 |
54.9 |
2.97 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo |
PF |
MIA |
16.8 |
54.5 |
3.24 |
| Jalen Johnson |
PF |
ATL |
15.2 |
48.1 |
3.16 |
| Domantas Sabonis |
C |
SAC |
14.3 |
45.4 |
3.17 |
| Anthony Davis |
C |
WAS |
12.8 |
45.3 |
3.54 |
| Anthony Edwards |
SG |
MIN |
14.8 |
43.7 |
2.95 |
| Paolo Banchero |
PF |
ORL |
14.5 |
42.9 |
2.96 |
| Alperen Sengun |
C |
HOU |
15.0 |
42.6 |
2.84 |
Anthony Davis is my favourite expensive play. At 12.8 he is priced well below the other stars, yet his 45.3 projection is almost level with Sabonis. According to the latest injury report, Washington’s AJ Dybantsa is out, which leaves more of the offense for Davis and Trae Young. Washington is the favourite against a Milwaukee defense I do not trust. The only real risk is a lopsided game, and that is a risk I will take at this price.
Between the two most expensive players, I lean Luka Doncic. His value of 2.97 is not as clean as Giannis at 3.24, but the Lakers roster is thin enough that he should carry a massive load, and I expect fewer people to pay for him. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the better number, but similar production is available elsewhere for less, so I only get there when the build has room.
Domantas Sabonis has one of the safest floors on the slate. According to the latest injury report, Sacramento’s Dylan Cardwell and Maxime Raynaud are out, and Malik Monk is questionable. Sabonis runs that offense and has a 50-point ceiling in a matchup against a Clippers team that is missing just as many bodies.
Jalen Johnson leads Atlanta in usage and has the highest ceiling on the team, though the Orlando matchup is not ideal. Paolo Banchero is the top Magic option on a roster missing Anthony Black, Jonathan Isaac and Noah Penda, according to the latest injury report. Alperen Sengun has the best floor and ceiling of Houston’s top group, and Steven Adams is questionable, which could add to his workload. Anthony Edwards is fine in the top total game, though at 2.95 I am not forcing him.
Fanteam value plays
| Player |
Pos |
Team |
Salary |
Proj |
Value |
| Dennis Schroder |
PG |
CHA |
6.2 |
26.4 |
4.26 |
| Grayson Allen |
SF |
CHA |
7.2 |
25.8 |
3.58 |
| Anthony Davis |
C |
WAS |
12.8 |
45.3 |
3.54 |
| Kawhi Leonard |
SF |
TOR |
12.4 |
41.9 |
3.38 |
| Obi Toppin |
PF |
IND |
6.6 |
22.3 |
3.38 |
| Jerami Grant |
PF |
MEM |
6.5 |
22.0 |
3.38 |
| Draymond Green |
PF |
GSW |
8.4 |
28.2 |
3.36 |
Charlotte is where the cheap production lives. According to the latest injury report, Kon Knueppel, Coby White, Grant Williams and Kylan Boswell are all out. That leaves almost no guards, so Dennis Schroder steps into a big role at 6.2. His 4.26 value is the best on the Fanteam slate. He will be very popular, and I am fine with that in cash games.
Grayson Allen is my preferred way to get into the same game. He starts for a guard-poor team and can fill several categories with threes and steals. At 7.2 he is a strong buy in a game most people will skip because of the low total.
Draymond Green is a safe floor play rather than a slate breaker. Golden State is without Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody and Brandin Podziemski, and Kristaps Porzingis is not with the team, according to the latest injury report. That means a bigger role for Green at 8.4.
Obi Toppin gets a boost from Indiana’s thin depth, with Aaron Nesmith, T.J. McConnell and Johnny Furphy out according to the latest injury report. He also spent time as a small-ball five in the preseason, which helps both his floor and ceiling.
Jerami Grant is conditional. Isaiah Stewart is listed as doubtful according to the latest injury report. If Stewart sits, Grant should lead the Memphis second unit and take plenty of shots. He is shot-dependent, but a few buckets and rebounds are enough at 6.5.
Kawhi Leonard grades well at 3.38, and Toronto has one of the best team totals. I still prefer Davis at a similar price. Kawhi will be heavily owned, and I am not fully sure how hard Toronto will lean on him this early. In tournaments, I am happy to be lighter on him than the field.
Fanteam fades
None of these are bad players. They are simply badly priced tonight, and the salary is better spent elsewhere.
| Player |
Pos |
Team |
Salary |
Proj |
Value |
| Derik Queen |
C |
NOP |
10.5 |
20.5 |
1.95 |
| Kelel Ware |
C |
MIL |
11.5 |
27.0 |
2.35 |
| Cooper Flagg |
SF |
DAL |
15.4 |
39.1 |
2.54 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg |
PF |
GSW |
10.5 |
27.5 |
2.62 |
Derik Queen at 10.5 for a 20.5 projection is the easiest pass on the slate. Kelel Ware is productive in whatever role he gets, and if he starts the picture improves. At 11.5, though, I need that confirmed before he makes sense.
Cooper Flagg has a huge role in Dallas, but at 15.4 he is too expensive, and I do not love the Houston matchup. Yaxel Lendeborg starts on a depleted Golden State roster and rebounds well. On Fanteam, his 10.5 price takes most of that upside away.
DraftKings value plays
DraftKings uses 8 players (PG, SG, SF, PF, C, G, F, UTIL) under a $50,000 cap. Value here is points per $1,000, with about 5 as the baseline. Davis at $7,600 (5.96) and Sabonis at $7,700 (5.90) are both strong mid-priced builds. The cheap end leans on the same thin rosters: Charlotte, Golden State, Indiana and the Clippers. According to the latest injury report, the Clippers are without Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram, Max Strus, Jordan Miller and Yanic Konan Niederhauser.
| Player |
Pos |
Team |
Salary |
Proj |
Value |
| Dennis Schroder |
PG |
CHA |
$3,700 |
26.4 |
7.14 |
| Draymond Green |
PF |
GSW |
$4,500 |
28.2 |
6.27 |
| Obi Toppin |
PF |
IND |
$3,600 |
22.3 |
6.19 |
| Kris Dunn |
PG |
LAC |
$3,700 |
22.5 |
6.08 |
| Isaiah Jackson |
C |
LAC |
$4,700 |
28.4 |
6.04 |
| Grayson Allen |
SG |
CHA |
$4,300 |
25.8 |
6.00 |
Kris Dunn benefits from the Clippers’ lack of guards. Isaiah Jackson is the better per-minute center over Brook Lopez, and he should see a full starting workload.
FanDuel value plays
FanDuel uses 9 players (PG, SG, SF, PF, C, G/F, F/C and two UTIL) under a $60,000 cap, and value is again points per $1,000. Anthony Edwards at $8,500 (4.98) is the best-priced star here. Most of the cheap value sits at center, which makes the F/C slot easier to fill.
| Player |
Pos |
Team |
Salary |
Proj |
Value |
| Isaiah Jackson |
C |
LAC |
$4,300 |
28.5 |
6.63 |
| Khaman Maluach |
C |
PHX |
$4,300 |
26.4 |
6.14 |
| Jalen Smith |
C |
CHI |
$4,500 |
26.8 |
5.96 |
| DeAnthony Melton |
PG |
GSW |
$4,400 |
26.2 |
5.95 |
| Cameron Boozer |
PF |
MEM |
$6,200 |
36.8 |
5.94 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili |
PF |
LAL |
$3,900 |
23.1 |
5.92 |
Maluach and Melton are both better if they start. According to the latest injury report, Phoenix’s Mark Williams is out, which helps Maluach’s case. Jalen Smith should get plenty of run with Nic Claxton out for Chicago, although his preseason role moved around. Boozer is a natural piece of a Memphis-Utah stack.
Yahoo value plays
Yahoo uses 8 players (PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, UTIL) with a $200 cap and at most 6 players from one team. A value above 1 beats the price. Giannis at 50 (1.07) is the only top play clearing that bar, so my builds lean on the cheap end to afford him.
| Player |
Pos |
Team |
Salary |
Proj |
Value |
| Khaman Maluach |
C |
PHX |
10 |
26.4 |
2.64 |
| Keaton Wagler |
PG |
LAC |
10 |
24.7 |
2.47 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg |
SF |
GSW |
14 |
28.5 |
2.04 |
| Isaiah Jackson |
C |
LAC |
17 |
28.5 |
1.68 |
| Cameron Boozer |
PF |
MEM |
24 |
36.8 |
1.53 |
| Fred VanVleet |
PG |
HOU |
20 |
29.6 |
1.48 |
Lendeborg is a fade on Fanteam but a clear value on Yahoo, because his price here matches his starting role. VanVleet should be heavily involved on a Houston team short on guards.
FAQ
Who is the best value star on Fanteam tonight?
Anthony Davis. At 12.8 with a 45.3 projection, his 3.54 value is the best among the top plays. With Dybantsa out for Washington, more of the offense should flow through him.
Which game should I stack?
Memphis against Utah. The total is 244.5, both teams are implied above 121, and each defense has a clear weakness. Minnesota and Miami has a bigger total, but I trust the Memphis-Utah game more to play to its number.
What happens in Portland if Deni Avdija sits?
Avdija is questionable according to the latest injury report. If he sits, Damian Lillard, Ja Morant and Jrue Holiday all pick up usage and become interesting on the sites where they are priced. If he plays, the usage is crowded and I would look elsewhere.
Lineups are not final, so check starting lineups and the latest injury report before lock.
For the always-updated slate numbers and full player projections for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and Fanteam, see our NBA DFS Projections page.
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