NBA DFS Feb 25: Cracking the Houston/OKC Value Code 🕵️‍♂️

Tonight’s 6-game slate is a puzzle of high ceilings and basement pricing. With Nikola Jokic projecting for a massive 62.4 FP, the “Stars & Scrubs” build is the obvious route, but the real advantage lies in how you crack the code for salary relief.

The math points directly to a hybrid build: locking in the elite floor of Jokic while exploiting the mispriced rotations in Houston and Oklahoma City.

🚨 The Value Code (Must Plays)

To fit the 20.8M price tag for the MVP, you need these high-efficiency plays. These are the mathematical foundations for tonight:

  • Kenrich Williams (PF | OKC | 6.5M): At 6.5M, he is the slate’s premier punt, projecting for 24.5 FP and a 3.76x value.
  • Reed Sheppard (PG | HOU | 7.8M): Houston’s rookie provides an elite 3.64x multiplier at a sub-8M price point, making him the top guard punt.
  • Jaylin Williams (PF | OKC | 7.7M): Offers a sturdy 27.3 FP projection, allowing you to double-down on OKC value to save nearly 15M in cap space.

🔒 The Stud Lock

Nikola Jokic (C | DEN | 20.8M)

  • Projection: 62.4 FP
  • Value: 3.00x
  • The Verdict: Jokic is the raw points king, sitting 11 points higher than the next closest player. Despite the premium price, he is still hitting a 3x value projection, making him the safest ceiling on the board.

⚠️ The Trap (Fade)

DeMar DeRozan (SF | SAC | 11.8M)

The Verdict: Avoid the name-brand trap. DeRozan costs 11.8M but projects for fewer points than Kenrich Williams, who costs almost half as much.

Projection: 24.4 FP

Value: 2.07x

Don’t Forget To Check Our NBA Projections Page

📉 The Hybrid Strategy

The Secondary Pivot: With the remaining salary, you can easily afford Victor Wembanyama (19.0M) or Cade Cunningham (18.2M). A double-stud build is the strongest way to capitalize on tonight’s specific value set.

Anchor with OKC/HOU Value: Start your build with Kenrich Williams (6.5M) and Reed Sheppard (7.8M). These two alone save you enough to ignore the mid-tier entirely.

Lock the MVP: Plug in Nikola Jokic (20.8M) at Center. His 60+ point floor is too high to fade on a 6-game slate.

📝 Wednesday’s Cheat Sheet

PositionPlayerSalaryProjValue
PGCade Cunningham18.2M48.92.69x
SGReed Sheppard7.8M28.43.64x
SFTari Eason10.2M33.23.26x
PFKenrich Williams6.5M24.53.76x
CNikola Jokic20.8M62.43.00x

Full Projections & Data

Below are the full sortable tables for tonight’s slate. Use the search bar to find specific players.

Fanteam Projections

NamePosTeamSalaryProjValueFT-PrefOwn%FormFloorCeilStd DevBoomStatusIds
Cade CunninghamPGDET18.454.72.975.60.0%52.540.169.411.83.8%expected4431021
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPGOKC17.550.22.875.00.0%48.437.362.09.81.2%expected4434905
LeBron JamesSFLAL15.643.52.794.414.9%44.129.458.111.13.8%expected4434587
Donovan MitchellSGCLE14.041.42.964.531.7%32.828.054.710.34.1%expected4430977
James HardenPGCLE13.640.12.954.431.9%41.627.152.09.72.6%expected4434559
Jalen DurenCDET12.438.03.064.40.0%31.027.249.08.94.2%expected4431016
Evan MobleyPFCLE12.537.22.984.225.8%37.925.849.19.34.0%expected4430972
Austin ReavesSGLAL13.035.72.753.83.0%29.022.647.610.01.8%expected4434588
Chet HolmgrenCOKC12.734.92.753.70.0%39.623.845.38.40.5%expected4434907
Tobias HarrisSFDET11.832.32.743.50.0%39.221.443.68.92.0%expected4431019
Ausar ThompsonSGDET11.031.72.883.60.0%32.620.642.18.21.9%expected4431027
Ajay MitchellPGOKC10.028.82.883.40.0%28.818.838.57.61.6%possible4434916
Jarrett AllenCCLE9.726.42.723.018.2%28.917.235.37.10.7%expected4430967
Deandre AytonCLAL8.826.12.963.26.3%30.316.736.57.63.1%expected4434578
Isaiah HartensteinCOKC9.025.92.883.10.0%27.817.634.36.50.6%expected4434913
Marcus SmartPGLAL9.325.32.722.90.1%33.015.635.78.01.7%expected4434586
Rui HachimuraPFLAL8.221.82.662.50.3%28.012.331.47.71.3%expected4434590
Daniss JenkinsPGDET9.221.72.362.20.0%19.612.631.17.20.2%possible4431024
Max StrusSGCLE7.320.82.852.65.7%22.311.829.97.21.7%possible4430978
Duncan RobinsonSGDET7.820.32.602.30.0%22.311.029.47.30.8%expected4431034
Luke KennardSGLAL7.518.62.482.10.0%17.010.226.96.60.4%possible4430864
Alex CarusoSGOKC6.818.12.662.20.0%17.410.026.86.71.0%expected4434903
Cason WallacePGOKC7.016.92.411.90.0%19.59.624.76.00.2%possible4434919
Luguentz DortSFOKC6.216.42.652.10.0%14.68.724.26.10.6%expected4434906
Jaylin WilliamsPFOKC5.815.42.662.00.0%14.47.124.06.71.2%possible4434909
Dean WadePFCLE6.015.22.541.90.5%14.57.622.86.20.2%expected4430965
Jaylon TysonSFCLE5.514.62.651.94.9%14.77.222.56.11.2%possible4430970
Jaxson HayesCLAL5.413.92.571.80.2%11.07.320.65.20.2%possible4434584
Dennis SchroderPGCLE5.712.12.131.31.1%14.15.319.75.70.1%possible4435377
Jake LaRaviaPFLAL5.612.12.161.30.0%9.84.919.05.60.0%possible4434581
Isaiah StewartCDET5.511.42.081.20.0%10.65.217.85.10.0%possible4431030
Isaiah JoeSGOKC5.511.02.011.20.0%15.13.419.76.50.4%possible4434904
Jared McCainPGOKC5.210.11.951.10.0%7.72.717.96.20.1%possible4435077
Keon EllisSGCLE5.18.81.730.90.0%6.92.915.25.10.0%possible4435385
Caris LeVertSFDET5.18.21.610.80.0%5.92.115.45.50.0%possible4431029
Thomas BryantCCLE4.87.51.560.70.0%10.41.914.04.80.0%possible4485604
Ronald Holland IISFDET4.67.21.570.70.0%7.01.912.64.40.0%possible4431028
Javonte GreenSGDET5.36.71.260.50.0%8.31.212.34.50.0%possible4431032
Aaron WigginsSGOKC4.84.80.990.30.0%6.70.410.74.70.0%possible4434921
Dalton KnechtSGLAL5.03.00.600.10.0%10.60.36.42.70.0%possible4434583
Bronny JamesPGLAL4.92.90.600.10.0%5.00.26.42.80.0%possible4434579
Maxi KleberPFLAL4.52.50.550.10.0%5.50.15.82.60.0%possible4434585

DraftKings Projections

PositionNameIDPosSalaryGame InfoTeamAvgProjValueOwn%FloorCeilStd DevSlate
PGCade Cunningham42996084PG/G/UTIL11000CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETDET49.7 54.13 4.92 36.93 40.38 69.55 11.76 main
PGShai Gilgeous-Alexander42996087PG/G/UTIL10500LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETOKC50.46 50.37 4.80 31.78 38.44 63.39 9.78 main
PFLeBron James42996090PF/F/UTIL9300LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETLAL42.12 43.99 4.73 39.82 29.50 57.92 11.11 main
SGDonovan Mitchell42996093SG/G/UTIL8400CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETCLE43.86 40.80 4.86 32.36 28.08 54.58 10.33 main
PGJames Harden42996096PG/G/UTIL8200CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETCLE44.53 39.60 4.83 27.20 27.66 52.11 9.75 main
CJalen Duren42996116C/UTIL7100CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETDET37.2 37.13 5.23 35.20 26.20 49.20 8.89 main
PF/CEvan Mobley42996106PF/C/F/UTIL7500CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETCLE39.65 36.60 4.88 34.13 25.83 49.40 9.26 main
PG/SGAustin Reaves42996099PG/SG/G/UTIL7700LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETLAL39.61 35.71 4.64 26.89 23.10 48.73 9.98 main
PFChet Holmgren42996103PF/F/UTIL7600LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETOKC35.58 34.88 4.59 29.17 25.03 46.15 8.44 main
PFTobias Harris42996113PF/F/UTIL7200CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETDET27.7 32.51 4.52 34.71 21.75 44.11 8.87 main
SFAusar Thompson42996118SF/F/UTIL6600CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETDET27.49 31.11 4.71 34.93 20.84 41.65 8.22 main
PGAjay Mitchell42996121PG/G/UTIL6000LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETOKC26.36 29.39 4.90 35.41 18.84 38.57 7.65 main
CJarrett Allen42996124C/UTIL5800CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETCLE31.57 26.00 4.48 11.28 17.08 35.35 7.08 main
CDeandre Ayton42996133C/UTIL5200LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETLAL26.88 25.90 4.98 37.76 16.45 36.20 7.61 main
CIsaiah Hartenstein42996131C/UTIL5400LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETOKC29.24 25.83 4.78 24.62 17.90 34.17 6.52 main
SG/SFMarcus Smart42996126SG/SF/F/G/UTIL5500LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETLAL22.37 24.63 4.48 33.03 14.79 36.02 8.05 main
SF/PFRui Hachimura42996135SF/PF/F/UTIL4900LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETLAL19.95 21.67 4.42 30.19 12.36 31.85 7.72 main
PGDaniss Jenkins42996160PG/G/UTIL3900CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETDET19.6 20.75 5.32 53.01 12.97 30.86 7.18 main
SGDuncan Robinson42996139SG/G/UTIL4700CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETDET21.44 20.46 4.35 19.81 11.18 29.08 7.34 main
SG/SFMax Strus42996146SG/SF/F/G/UTIL4500CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETCLE22.7 20.33 4.52 16.66 11.80 29.45 7.20 main
PG/SGLuke Kennard42996142PG/SG/G/UTIL4600LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETLAL17.2 18.10 3.93 7.93 10.17 26.85 6.58 main
SF/PFAlex Caruso42996156SF/PF/F/UTIL4200LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETOKC15.97 17.74 4.22 20.06 9.94 26.68 6.74 main
SG/SFCason Wallace42996151SG/SF/F/G/UTIL4300LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETOKC21.05 17.20 4.00 12.81 9.19 24.12 5.96 main
SGLuguentz Dort42996163SG/G/UTIL3700LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETOKC17.55 15.97 4.32 19.17 8.97 24.27 6.14 main
SF/PFDean Wade42996168SF/PF/F/UTIL3500CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETCLE15.84 14.95 4.27 19.50 7.36 22.91 6.16 main
SF/PFJaylon Tyson42996191SF/PF/F/UTIL3200CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETCLE24.56 14.83 4.63 28.94 7.17 22.80 6.15 main
CJaylin Williams42996166C/UTIL3500LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETOKC19.94 14.15 4.04 9.42 7.35 23.81 6.73 main
CJaxson Hayes42996200C/UTIL3100LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETLAL15.8 13.27 4.28 12.96 7.17 20.61 5.25 main
PGDennis Schroder42996172PG/G/UTIL3400CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETCLE21.9 11.77 3.46 3.95 4.60 19.72 5.70 main
SG/SFJake LaRavia42996186SG/SF/F/G/UTIL3200LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETLAL18.52 11.74 3.67 13.48 5.04 19.37 5.65 main
SGIsaiah Joe42996175SG/G/UTIL3300LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETOKC18.52 11.38 3.45 1.38 3.84 19.50 6.47 main
PF/CIsaiah Stewart42996178PF/C/F/UTIL3300CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETDET20.35 11.27 3.41 4.80 4.87 18.00 5.13 main
PG/SGJared McCain42996202PG/SG/G/UTIL3100LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETOKC13.95 9.14 2.95 2.42 2.53 18.09 6.18 main
SG/SFCaris LeVert42996206SG/SF/F/G/UTIL3100CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETDET15.61 8.19 2.64 2.00 1.96 14.99 5.52 main
SF/PFJavonte Green42996182SF/PF/F/UTIL3200CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETDET14.42 7.75 2.42 2.21 1.42 12.53 4.53 main
SG/SFKeon Ellis42996195SG/SF/F/G/UTIL3100CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETCLE13.95 7.28 2.35 0.43 2.69 15.17 5.14 main
CThomas Bryant42996238C/UTIL3000CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETCLE12.38 6.12 2.04 0.34 2.16 13.61 4.83 main
SF/PFAaron Wiggins42996225SF/PF/F/UTIL3000LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETOKC17.73 6.10 2.03 1.02 0.27 10.69 4.73 main
PFRonald Holland II42996214PF/F/UTIL3000CLE@DET 05/07/2026 07:00PM ETDET17.25 5.67 1.89 0.70 2.28 13.20 4.37 main
PGBronny James42996253PG/G/UTIL3000LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETLAL6.17 2.45 0.82 0.26 0.21 6.65 2.80 main
SG/SFDalton Knecht42996244SG/SF/F/G/UTIL3000LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETLAL7.35 2.36 0.79 0.21 0.31 6.32 2.65 main
PF/CMaxi Kleber42996256PF/C/F/UTIL3000LAL@OKC 05/07/2026 09:30PM ETLAL6.77 2.27 0.76 0.46 0.11 5.82 2.63 main

Fanduel Projections

IdPositionNicknameSalaryGameTeamOpponentFptsValueOwn%FloorCeilStdDev
129617-188414C/PFVictor Wembanyama12300POR@SASAPOR58.1 4.72 10.64 49.68 65.74 11.99
129617-80808PF/SFJayson Tatum9900PHI@BOSBOSPHI47.9 4.84 22.21 41.29 54.96 10.27
129617-157833PF/SFJalen Johnson8900ATL@NYATLNY44.8 5.03 19.83 35.02 49.36 10.76
129617-49111CJoel Embiid9700PHI@BOSPHIBOS44.7 4.60 26.64 34.00 49.16 11.15
129617-145331PGTyrese Maxey9500PHI@BOSPHIBOS43.6 4.59 13.87 31.28 46.02 10.82
129617-58462C/PFKarl-Anthony Towns8600ATL@NYNYATL43.1 5.01 18.11 35.26 47.94 9.48
129617-67026SF/SGJaylen Brown9000PHI@BOSBOSPHI42.3 4.71 19.95 35.58 48.56 9.55
129617-145539SF/PFDeni Avdija8800POR@SAPORSA42.0 4.77 14.62 31.22 45.54 10.49
129617-84690PGJalen Brunson8300ATL@NYNYATL41.8 5.04 24.64 32.70 45.42 9.54
129617-203723SG/PGStephon Castle7700POR@SASAPOR37.3 4.85 20.76 29.96 41.96 8.83
129617-80810PGDe’Aaron Fox7200POR@SASAPOR34.9 4.84 19.21 30.34 42.50 9.15
129617-9663PGJrue Holiday6800POR@SAPORSA34.6 5.09 29.73 28.14 41.30 9.69
129617-68090SF/PFOG Anunoby6800ATL@NYNYATL33.6 4.94 30.23 26.80 38.76 8.97
129617-19067SG/PGCJ McCollum7100ATL@NYATLNY33.2 4.67 26.54 25.04 38.00 9.47
129617-40562SF/PFJosh Hart6500ATL@NYNYATL32.3 4.97 19.20 26.58 37.50 8.13
129617-12341SF/PFPaul George6900PHI@BOSPHIBOS31.7 4.59 17.01 22.64 35.16 9.25
129617-110356SG/PGNickeil Alexander-Walker6300ATL@NYATLNY31.4 4.99 26.43 24.23 37.34 9.68
129617-145304C/PFOnyeka Okongwu6100ATL@NYATLNY30.7 5.03 27.52 26.68 39.81 9.75
129617-171784SG/PGDyson Daniels6600ATL@NYATLNY30.6 4.64 19.58 23.76 35.00 8.22
129617-49675SG/PGDerrick White5800PHI@BOSBOSPHI29.5 5.09 21.42 23.38 34.84 8.50
129617-228133SG/PGVJ Edgecombe6700PHI@BOSPHIBOS29.1 4.34 5.22 20.22 31.78 8.39
129617-58153SF/PFKelly Oubre5200PHI@BOSPHIBOS27.4 5.26
129617-145335PG/SGPayton Pritchard5400PHI@BOSBOSPHI27.1 5.02 11.04 19.04 29.36 7.59
129617-84708C/PFRobert Williams5300POR@SAPORSA26.1 4.92 38.23 19.78 29.44 7.24
129617-145324SF/SGDevin Vassell5600POR@SASAPOR24.8 4.43 21.86 20.24 31.26 8.08
129617-157904SF/PFJonathan Kuminga5100ATL@NYATLNY24.3 4.77 18.21 18.54 28.42 7.28
129617-188428PGScoot Henderson5000POR@SAPORSA24.2 4.84 23.97 19.02 31.04 8.97
129617-203714CDonovan Clingan4900POR@SAPORSA22.3 4.56 3.02 19.62 29.82 7.64
129617-188447SF/PFToumani Camara4400POR@SAPORSA22.3 5.07 12.82 15.34 25.64 7.65
129617-157811CNeemias Queta4400PHI@BOSBOSPHI22.2 5.04 1.72 15.96 26.18 7.82
129617-228126SG/PGDylan Harper4800POR@SASAPOR21.2 4.42 34.21 17.16 27.92 8.07
129617-84670SG/SFMikal Bridges4200ATL@NYNYATL20.7 4.92 5.35 14.58 24.64 7.33
129617-23831PF/SFJerami Grant4500POR@SAPORSA20.6 4.58 18.50 13.06 22.58 7.12
129617-172098SG/SFJulian Champagnie4100POR@SASAPOR19.8 4.83 27.15 14.98 25.02 7.40
129617-14514CNikola Vucevic4000PHI@BOSBOSPHI18.7 4.67 18.51 17.22 27.50 7.54
129617-157824PG/SGMiles McBride3800ATL@NYNYATL17.4 4.58 18.80 11.26 20.14 6.63
129617-84709CMitchell Robinson3700ATL@NYNYATL16.0 4.33 6.95 12.58 22.00 7.12
129617-158854SF/PFSam Hauser3800PHI@BOSBOSPHI15.7 4.12 9.55 10.64 18.90 6.12
129617-110347SF/PFKeldon Johnson3800POR@SASAPOR15.4 4.07 19.44 11.60 20.58 6.78
129617-41083CLuke Kornet3900POR@SASAPOR14.8 3.79 0.31 9.66 18.58 6.70
129617-157826SG/SFQuentin Grimes3900PHI@BOSPHIBOS14.2 3.65 0.57 7.84 15.26 5.52
129617-171804SG/PGShaedon Sharpe3700POR@SAPORSA12.9 3.48 5.01 9.03 16.92 5.98
129617-20640SG/PGJordan Clarkson3600ATL@NYNYATL11.3 3.14 15.83 8.78 17.12 6.24
129617-203715SGBaylor Scheierman3600PHI@BOSBOSPHI9.4 2.62 1.53 4.91 11.82 5.23
129617-188457SFJordan Walsh3500PHI@BOSBOSPHI8.4 2.41 0.15 4.44 11.22 5.31
129617-101387SG/PGGabe Vincent3500ATL@NYATLNY8.1 2.30 0.39 6.00 12.64 4.99
129617-188454PF/CMouhamed Gueye3500ATL@NYATLNY8.0 2.29 0.65 5.18 11.80 4.91
129617-203772SFJustin Edwards3500PHI@BOSPHIBOS7.1 2.02 0.50 4.12 9.92 4.39
129617-158373PGJose Alvarado3500ATL@NYNYATL7.1 2.02 0.71 5.20 12.18 5.55
129617-228125SF/PFCarter Bryant3500POR@SASAPOR6.9 1.97 0.52 3.92 11.00 5.56
129617-171925PFDominick Barlow3500PHI@BOSPHIBOS6.9 1.97 2.20 4.28 10.00 4.32
129617-15557CAndre Drummond4300PHI@BOSPHIBOS6.7 1.56 0.04 3.52 9.97 5.10
129617-15946PFHarrison Barnes3500POR@SASAPOR6.4 1.83 0.11 3.66 9.66 4.66
129617-110320SF/SGMatisse Thybulle3500POR@SAPORSA4.9 1.41 0.12 1.20 4.32 2.39
129617-157819SF/SGCorey Kispert3500ATL@NYATLNY4.8 1.38 0.19 1.52 6.12 3.54
129617-188429SFKris Murray3500POR@SAPORSA4.7 1.33 0.18 2.76 8.16 4.14
129617-157807CLuka Garza3500PHI@BOSBOSPHI4.3 1.23 0.05 2.64 9.34 5.30
129617-84724SG/SFLandry Shamet3500ATL@NYNYATL3.0 0.86 0.10 0.12 3.24 2.17
129617-80823CTony Bradley3500ATL@NYATLNY2.2 0.63 0.04 0.90 4.02 2.46
129617-203771CAdem Bona3700PHI@BOSPHIBOS2.0 0.55 0.02 1.52 6.08 3.62

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